Nửa đầu đầu năm 2021, bất chấp bối cảnh dịch bệnh, tăng trưởng của chỉ số VN-Index đứng thứ hai thế giới, xô đổ hàng loạt cột mốc lịch sử về điểm số, thanh khoản và số lượng nhà đầu tư mới gia nhập thị trường. Tại tọa đàm trực tuyến Forbes Vietnam Live ngày 29/7 với chủ đề “Cơ hội và rủi ro ở vùng đỉnh lịch sử”, Ông Lê Anh Tuấn – Phó Tổng giám đốc đầu tư, Trưởng phòng nghiên cứu Quỹ Dragon Capital đã có những chia sẻ rất lạc quan về thị trường Việt Nam trong cả ngắn và dài hạn.
Theo đó, ông Tuấn cho rằng, với kỳ vọng tăng trưởng lợi nhuận vào khoảng 40%, thị trường năm 2021, nếu xét trên top 60 cổ phiếu lớn nhất toàn sàn, thì định giá P/E chỉ rơi vào mức 12,6 lần, thấp hơn so với mức 16,17 lần của Bloomberg. Cho năm 2022, với giả thuyết hiệu suất tăng trưởng lợi suất khoảng 25%, thì P/E sẽ ở mức 10 lần, thấp hơn tương đối nhiều so với lịch sử. Do vậy, ông Tuấn khẳng định thị trường Việt Nam hiện đang ở mức định giá không hề đắt.
Đặc biệt, với việc các nhà đầu tư mới (F0) gia nhập thị trường mạnh mẽ và sự quan tâm đến đầu tư tài chính tăng lên, chỉ trong 3-4 năm nữa, mức định giá thấp của Việt Nam sẽ tiệm cận dần các thị trường khuc vực.
Đánh giá việc thanh khoản từ đầu tháng 7 trở lại đây đang quay đầu giảm nhiệt, chuyên gia đến từ Dragon Capital cho rằng, những phiên thanh khoản 30 nghìn tỷ là quá cao và chỉ là đột biến tại thị trường Việt Nam, do đó không thể duy trì lâu dài. Hiện, dòng tiền giao dịch trong khoảng 15-20 nghìn tỷ sẽ là ổn định, như vậy, việc thanh khoản thị trường ở mức 10-13 nghìn tỷ như vừa qua không hẳn là quá thấp và không đáng quan ngại.
Nói về diễn biến vốn ngoại, ông Tuấn cho biết, trong vòng 8 tháng vừa qua, việc rút ròng của khối ngoại mà cụ thể là các nhà đầu tư Hàn Quốc diễn ra rất mạnh. Điều này chủ yếu xuất phát từ yếu tố chu kỳ kinh doanh 3 năm và sự chuyển dịch trong cơ cấu đầu tư sang các lĩnh vực mới.
Gần đây, lượng bán ròng đã giảm dần, và ông Tuấn dự báo, khi mà bức tranh kinh tế Việt Nam dần trở nên lạc quan hơn nhờ công tác tiêm vaccine được triển khai mạnh, lượng vốn ngoại đi ra khỏi thị trường Việt Nam sẽ không còn quá lớn như 6 tháng đầu năm, thậm chí có thể dương trở lại trong 3-6 tháng tới.
Ngân hàng, Vật liệu xây dựng và Bất động sản là ba trụ cột
Cũng từ yếu tố phục hồi của bức tranh kinh tế Việt Nam, ông Tuấn đưa ra giả thuyết về sự phục hồi của các ngành kinh tế sẽ theo hình chữ K trong nửa sau của năm 2021. Cụ thể, những ngành tận dụng được lợi thế tốt sẽ tiếp tục tăng trưởng và ghi nhận hiệu suất sinh lời vượt trội. Ở chiều ngược lại, những ngành bị ảnh hưởng nặng nề và không tận dụng được cơ hội sẽ tiếp tục đà sụt giảm trong hai quý còn lại và sang cả năm 2022. Đợt dịch tuy có làm GDP tăng trưởng chậm lại và khả năng quý 3 sẽ ghi nhận mức tồi tệ nhất lịch sử 25 năm qua, song lợi nhuận của các doanh nghiệp niêm yết sẽ chỉ phản ánh kinh tế một phần và không bị ảnh hưởng nặng nề như GDP.
Đáng chú ý, ba ngành kinh tế theo ý kiến của ông Tuấn sẽ dẫn dắt cho sự đi lên của toàn thị trường là Ngân hàng (6 tháng cuối năm tăng trưởng 18%), ngành Vật liệu Xây dựng (tăng trưởng tới 100%) và ngành Bất động sản. “Nếu ba ngành kinh tế này không thể dẫn dắt đà tăng trưởng chung thì đấy là thời điểm chúng ta nên rời khỏi thị trường” – ông Tuấn cho biết.
Trong đó, tại ngành Ngân hàng, điều quan trọng đó là hầu hết các khoản cho vay đều đã được đảm bảo bằng tài sản, và 85% là BĐS. Do đó, khi thị trường BĐS ổn định thì ngành ngân hàng sẽ được hưởng lợi, đặc biệt là trong môi trường lãi suất thấp – điều đang diễn ra trong bối cảnh dịch bệnh. Sau đó, nếu dịch bệnh được kiểm soát thì ngành bán lẻ cũng sẽ là điểm sáng và xa hơn là lĩnh vực bất động sản.
Lạm phát có đáng quan ngại?
Về vĩ mô, ông Tuấn tin tưởng vào các quyết sách của Chính Phủ về đầu tư cơ sở hạ tầng và chiến lược tiêm vaccine. Ngoài ra, ảnh hưởng của yếu tố lạm phát có thể xảy đến nếu áp dụng chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng sẽ chỉ mang tính chất thời điểm và sẽ không ảnh hưởng quá lớn đến tình hình kinh tế hiện nay.
Những thông tin về việc FED điều chỉnh tăng lãi suất và giảm các gói kích thích cũng sẽ không cần quá lo lắng khi mà thị trường Việt có thể sẽ có nhịp điều chỉnh trong ngắn hạn, song trong dài hạn thì thị trường sẽ phụ thuộc nhiều hơn vào mức độ tăng trưởng về lợi nhuận của các công ty niêm yết.
VN-Index cán mốc 2.500 điểm vào năm 2025, NĐT đừng cố gắng tìm “sóng ngành” để đầu tư
Đến năm 2025, ông Tuấn cho rằng kịch bản VN-Index có thể đạt mức 2.500 điểm là rất khả quan, theo điều kiện hiệu suất đầu tư đạt 13-15%. Về chiến lược đầu tư cho F0, số lượng cổ phiếu tăng trưởng vượt mức tăng của VN-Index đã lên tới 60% trong năm 2021, cho thấy đà tăng đã mang tính diện rộng. Do đó, ông Tuấn cho rằng việc lựa chọn ra một ngành “tạo sóng” và đầu tư sẽ không mang lại hiệu quả cao, đặc biệt là khi các nhịp điều chỉnh mạnh diễn ra trong thời gian qua sẽ gây thua lỗ nặng nề cho danh mục.
“Xét về đầu tư trong trung và dài hạn, kiểm soát lòng tham và sự sợ hãi là điều rất quan trọng đối với các F0. Do đó, với kinh nghiệm 15 năm trong nghề, tôi khuyên các F0 nên dành 50-70% số tiền vào các rổ chỉ số hay gửi tại các quỹ đầu tư; phần còn lại hãy quan sát thị trường và đầu tư theo nhận định của bản thân. Điều này sẽ mang lại hiệu suất sinh lời tốt nhất; đặc biệt là nên đầu tư càng sớm càng tốt.” – ông Tuấn chia sẻ.
Nguồn: https://cafef.vn/chuyen-gia-dragon-capital-neu-3-nganh-ngan-hang-xay-dung-va-bat-dong-san-khong-the-dan-dat-da-tang-truong-thi-day-la-luc-roi-khoi-thi-truong-20210729184312763.chn
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