Tại hội thảo công bố Báo cáo thường niên Kinh tế Việt Nam 2021, PGS TS Nguyễn Trúc Lê, hiệu trưởng Trường Đại học Kinh tế (ĐHKT) – ĐHQGHN, nhấn mạnh rằng năm 2021 chính là một năm bản lề của giai đoạn phát triển mới với nền kinh tế Việt Nam. Do đó, việc định vị lại Việt Nam trong bối cảnh biến động toàn cầu là vô cùng quan trọng.
Trong đó, báo cáo tập trung vào hai nhóm ngành kinh tế quan trọng là điện tử và thực phẩm. Ngành điện tử đã có những đóng góp lớn vào tăng trưởng GDP và ngân sách nhà nước, thu hút vốn đầu tư nước ngoài FDI và có lợi thế so sánh cao.
Đối với ngành thực phẩm, Việt Nam ghi nhận sự dịch chuyển mạnh mẽ từ ngành nhập khẩu ròng sang xuất khẩu ròng. Ngoài ra, nhóm ngành này có nhiều tiềm năng phát triển khi tham gia vào chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu (GVC) thông qua các hiệp định FTAs và tận dụng nguồn nông sản nội địa do nhu cầu cấp thiết về đảm bảo an ninh lương thực thực phẩm.
Bối cảnh nền kinh tế thế giới ảm đạm
PGS TS Nguyễn Anh Thu, Phó hiệu Trường ĐHKT-ĐHQGHN, Viện Trưởng Viện nghiên cứu và chính sách, đã nhận định việc khó dự đoán về mức độ tăng trưởng của thế giới trong bối cảnh mới.
Điều này được thể hiện qua việc các tổ chức kinh tế lớn đã phải thay đổi các dự báo trong năm 2021 và 2022. Cùng với những lỗ hổng lớn trong các hệ thống tài chính, sự gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng dẫn đến thương mại và đầu tư quốc tế cũng bị ảnh hưởng sâu sắc và suy giảm trầm trọng.
Theo WTO Data Portal, trong khi dịch vụ hàng hóa suy giảm ở mức 7% thì nhóm ngành thương mại dịch vụ suy giảm nghiêm trọng 20% trong năm 2020. Dòng đầu tư đã giảm xuống mức âm 35%, thấp hơn rất nhiều mức đáy của thời suy thoái toàn cầu năm 2008 – 2009.
Việc sản xuất gián đoạn đã dẫn đến xu hướng tái định hình chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu (GVC). Trong ngắn hạn, sự dịch chuyển này còn chưa rõ ràng nhưng về dài hạn, nhiều dự báo được đưa ra về việc các hãng đang dần dịch chuyển sản xuất khỏi Trung Quốc và Việt Nam có thể nắm bắt lấy cơ hội này để có cơ hội thúc đẩy tăng trưởng cao hơn.
Cùng với đó, chính sách của các nền kinh tế lớn thế giới gồm Mỹ, Trung Quốc và EU cũng thay đổi. Nền kinh tế bắt đầu xuất hiện những mâu thuẫn giữa liên kết, hội nhập với gia tăng xu hướng phân tách, bảo hộ dẫn đến hình thành cục diện thế giới “lưỡng siêu, đa cực”. Bà Anh Thu cũng nhấn mạnh về xu hướng xanh hóa và số hóa trên nền kinh tế thế giới hiện nay.
Ngành điện tử và thực phẩm: điểm sáng giúp định vị lại nền kinh tế Việt Nam
Về nền kinh tế Việt Nam nói chung, TS. Vũ Thanh Hương, Khoa Kinh Tế Quốc Tế ĐHQGHN, đã đưa ra những nhận xét về lợi thế so sánh của việc tham gia vào tái định hình chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu của nền kinh tế Việt Nam.
Trong năm 2020, Việt Nam có lợi thế so sánh về 6/20 nhóm ngành, trong đó điện tử và giày, dép, mũ có tiềm năng để bứt phá cao trên thị trường thế giới. Hiện nay, Việt Nam cũng đang tập trung cao xung quanh 3 trung tâm lớn của chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu là Đông Bắc Á, EU, Bắc Mỹ cũng như quanh khu vực ASEAN. Tuy nhiên, Việt Nam lại đang chỉ tham gia vào mảng lắp ráp, gia công, chế biến trong chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu.
So sánh sự tham gia của Việt Nam với các quốc gia khác về sự tham gia vào chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu. Nguồn ảnh: VEPR
Đối với ngành điện tử, đây là ngành có giá trị xuất khẩu lớn nhất tại Việt Nam và nằm trong top 10 thế giới hai năm liên tiếp 2019, 2020. Không chỉ vậy, ngành điện tử Việt Nam còn có chỉ số lợi thế so sánh đứng vị trí thứ 5 trên thế giới năm 2020. Việt Nam cũng thu hút lượng lớn vốn đầu tư FDI trong lĩnh vực điện tử và đóng góp lớn trong chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu.
Song, cùng với độ phức tạp của sản phẩm xuất khẩu và tỷ lệ nội địa hóa còn thấp, sự “thống trị” của những doanh nghiệp FDI là thách thức Việt Nam cần phải vượt qua. Vì thế, Việt Nam cần định vị lại lợi thế trong lĩnh vực này để cải thiện vị trí trên thị trường quốc tế và trên chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu.
Sự tham gia vào chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu ngành thực phẩm của Việt Nam. Nguồn ảnh: VEPR
Đối với ngành thực phẩm, Việt Nam có kim ngạch xuất khẩu lớn, thứ hạng trên thế giới liên tục tăng và đứng thứ 26 vào năm 2020. Dù Việt Nam vẫn chưa có lợi thế so sánh về toàn bộ nhóm ngành thực phẩm trên thế giới, nhưng Việt Nam vẫn có lợi thế trong các mặt hàng như chế biến hải sản, dầu mỡ, cá và trứng cá.
Thế nhưng, định vị lợi thế cạnh tranh của Việt Nam đối với mặt hàng thực phẩm xuất khẩu có khả năng giảm nếu Việt Nam không có những chính sách phù hợp trong bối cảnh cạnh tranh khốc liệt của nhóm ngành này. Hơn nữa, đối tượng tham gia chính vào chuỗi cung ứng toàn cầu trong lĩnh vực này hầu hết là các doanh nghiệp tư nhân nên cần có sự quan tâm từ chính quyền để cải thiện năng lực sản xuất.
Theo PGS.TS. Phạm Thế Anh, Trưởng bộ môn Kinh Tế Vĩ Mô – Khoa Kinh Tế học Đại học Kinh Tế Quốc Dân, năng suất, chất lượng sản xuất của các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam nói chung, đặc biệt là doanh nghiệp ngành điện tử và thực phẩm nói riêng đã có những bước tiến rõ rệt. Qua đó, ta thấy rõ được tiềm năng của hai nhóm ngành này đối với quá trình định vị lại nền kinh tế Việt Nam hiện nay.
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